Supply forecasting through internal workforce data

Workforce supply forecasting is the focus of this video, which is part of the 5HR02 unit on talent management and workforce planning and addresses Assessment Criterion 2.2 on evaluating techniques used to support the workforce planning process. The video concentrates specifically on the internal data sources organisations use to understand how their current workforce is likely to change over time. The metrics covered include promotion rates, demotion rates, transfer rates, employee turnover rate, and the stability index — each examined as a distinct analytical input into supply forecasting rather than as a general HR administration concern.

The treatment of promotion and demotion rates goes beyond headline figures, addressing what patterns within those rates reveal about talent pipeline development, progression blockages, retention risk, and equity across demographic groups and business units. Transfer rate analysis is also covered in depth, with the video examining what lateral movement data indicates about internal labour market dynamics, organisational flexibility, siloed working, and the feasibility of redeployment when restructuring is planned. These two areas of internal movement data are positioned as complementary inputs that, taken together, inform how an organisation's existing workforce might be redistributed or developed to meet future demand.

The video gives particular attention to employee turnover as a supply forecasting metric, moving well beyond the basic leaver calculation to distinguish voluntary from involuntary turnover, functional from dysfunctional turnover, and attrition patterns by tenure, role, department, and manager. The stability index is introduced alongside turnover rate to show why a single aggregate figure can obscure where workforce attrition is actually concentrated. The video also addresses how historical turnover rates are projected forward in supply forecasting and how those projections are adjusted for anticipated changes in circumstances.